GOP Must Build Coalitions in Suburbia

Sometimes you’re so close to battles that you need to step back. I thought getting GOP leaders to agree that the party needed to grow was the problem. It turns out that actually doing it may be even harder.

After recent conversations with suburban business leaders at political and charitable events, I’m genuinely surprised that so many seem unaware of the culture wars roiling the country. Others are somewhat aware but want Republicans to ignore them, so that we can get to the “real” issues.

The suburbs are the center of America’s culture wars. Imagine my surprise, then, at encountering so many businesspeople who aren’t aware of the specifics, let alone the intensity, of the battles in public schools over curriculum, race, gender, the role of parents, or books. Others see these fights as distractions from “real” issues.

The battles around abortion are a good example, especially when it comes to older, established business leaders who lean Republican. The abortion issue reveals all aspects of the challenge for the GOP: misunderstanding the legislation being debated; reliance on outdated, preconceived notions; and the current desire for cultural unity in the suburbs, especially among business leaders.

When it comes to abortion, suburban businesspeople know what they’re supposed to say: it’s a woman’s choice. Politicians have no business telling women what to do. Republicans have to give up on this issue to win. 

If the conversation lasts beyond two minutes, it gets more interesting. The businesspeople add: “Look, of course there should be some limits.” Then, they continue to offer a mix of counsel and a directive: “The problem is that ‘Republicans’ are pushing a ban; nobody’s for that.”

I present these civic leaders with a 2023 update: almost no Republican is advocating a national ban, or a Pennsylvania one. There’s far more diversity of thought on abortion among Republican politicians than among Democrats. U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s much-discussed bill was for a national standard of 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life and health of the mother. This is a less stringent version of what most of Europe has in place.

On the flip side, I remind them that several times since 2020, the U.S. House has voted on a bill requiring that a baby surviving an abortion must be given care to try keep it alive – and not one Democratic member of Congress has voted for that bill.

The reality is that these businesspeople are arguing over abortion today with a 1990’s policy mindset – but doing so with 2023’s insistence on strict ideological adherence. For Republicans, this is the worst of all worlds.

For our purposes, the issue here is not abortion in and of itself, or what federal or state law ought to be on it. Rather, it’s larger lessons about the nature of the suburbs and the challenges of coalition-building for the GOP.

First, in the abortion debate, current policy positions have been lost in the noise – to the Republicans’ detriment. As polls have indicated, suburban voters see Democrats on the right side of the issue and Republicans on the wrong side. And, in the suburbs, one of the last things that a corporate leader wants to be accused of is being on the wrong side of a cultural battle.

And yet, digging deeper into polling data, one can make the case that most voters do support some limits, at least, on abortion – a position closer to that of many Republican candidates. But in the suburbs, the GOP is mired in cultural and electoral quicksand. Perception is more important than reality.

Second, the center of gravity on the issue has moved, and many corporate leaders seem not to realize it – or it doesn’t impact their outlook. For example, Democrats no longer talk about “safe, legal and rare,” as they did a generation ago; they talk about unlimited abortion access. Conversely, Republicans now talk mostly about limits, not prohibitions. It’s Democrats who have become more absolute and monolithic on abortion.

Third, many base GOP voters can’t “get past” these issues. To them, abortion and other cultural and social issues are more important than tax rates or the debt. There’s the problem for the party: if winning back suburban corporate leaders means giving up on cultural issues, it could wind up being a zero-sum game – pick up 100 voters, lose another 100 – at best.

For the GOP in the suburbs, getting to a majority, or even a plurality, isn’t about herding cats; it’s about herding cats, dogs, foxes, and sheep.

Many Republican leaders know that they need to build a larger coalition. The best path to growth is among first- and second-generation Americans, whose values and policy goals align more with the GOP; and to focus on parents and plan for the future by engaging younger voters. With parents and the young, the GOP should discuss inflation and school choice.

If Republicans ignore the need to grow, they will lose. If they try the either/or of economics or cultural battles, they will lose. But, if they engage these “untapped markets,” the GOP may not only improve on their results in 2024 but also begin to create a governing majority – as we have seen them do in places like Florida.

It can be done. Ronald Reagan did it in 1980. Newt Gingrich did it in 1994. The GOP needs to build its next great coalition.