How’s the Suburban Political Experiment Going?
Suburban Philadelphia voters are in the midst of a political science experiment – and they may not even be consciously participating in it.
Today, Democrats control each of the four Philadelphia suburban courthouses – not only the governing commissioners (County Council in Delaware County), but also, every row office except for a handful in “purple” Bucks County. They also hold 80% of the legislative seats and 75% of the congressional delegation. Democrats hold similar dominance in those suburban townships, boroughs, and school boards – often without Republicans holding even one seat.
As recently as 2010, that would have been a similar description of the Republican dominance.
Democrats grew their tiny legislative suburban footholds in 2006 and 2008. But the first major “domino” fell in the election of 2011: Democrats took control of Montgomery County. By the election of 2019, Democrats controlled every courthouse, most legislative seats, and many municipalities and school boards.
While I’ve been among those commenting on why and how this happened – and even how the GOP can begin its “comeback,” most Democrats would concede that the Democratic Party’s path to dominance from 2011 to today was not built on GOP failures or scandals.
While not perfect, the suburbs were home to unemployment rates (well) below the national average; low crime rates that were nearly non-existent (aside from their cities); public schools rated among the best in the state, focusing on academics; and traditional GOP approaches to government – low-taxes and small growth budgets.
The switch was a rejection of brand, as if a community of steak-eaters decided that they preferred tofu. While there were some exceptions, Democratic candidates and party leaders talked about rejecting the GOP, or its platform (and, ultimately Donald Trump) – rather than specific local GOP officeholders. Honest analysts would concede that the move away from “steak” began in the 2000s and picked up momentum in the Obama era, be it through changing demographics, new residents, changing priorities – and the growing percentage of college graduates, particularly those with master’s degrees.
In traditional “science,” you can test theories in the lab or through computer models; but “political science” is not like any other science. You can only “test” it in real life. Only after an election will voters learn if a newly elected candidate or governing party has policies and priorities that are successful – or not.
Despite their very high quality of life, voters voted to get rid of the governing party. It was as if either they didn’t realize that GOP elected officials had helped provide the quality of life they loved, stayed for, or moved into; or they were willing to take the risk of losing some or all of their quality of life in exchange for “platforms,” priorities, and party labels that made them feel better.
Twenty years ago, Democrats frequently didn’t list their party on campaign literature. By the election of 2008, more and more candidates started identifying as Democrats. Eventually their candidates either led with his/her party, or quickly noted that the incumbent/opponent was a Republican.
Having almost entirely rejected the party that provided (or presided) over their communities just over a decade ago, suburban residents are in a political science experiment – whether they consciously chose to “run the test” or not.
How’s it going?
Higher taxes and bigger government – and mismanaged county government. Published county government data provides insights on how things have changed – government has grown bigger and more expensive.
During the period of 2018-2022, inflation in our region was 15.4%. Yet, Chester County’s government budget grew by 31.6% – without even factoring in the huge growth this year, requiring a 13.1% tax increase. Delaware County grew its budget by 38.3%. “Purple” Bucks County is the “least wasteful” – growing government by “only” 21.24%. Yet Democrats in Montco clearly feel invincible – leading the pack with a growth of 46%!
Focusing on county government, one sees it gets bigger and more expensive. Often allies, insiders, and donors benefit from the new governing majority. And the new officials’ governing majorities often govern poorly, at times, failing to do the basics.
Chester County is an example. Democratic commissioners not only grew government by twice the rate of inflation, they’ve kept going. Bigger, more expansive government costs taxpayers more – a lot more. This year alone commissioners raised property taxes over 13% and staffed a newly created “Chief Experience Officer” position. This is the gang that let twice-convicted murdered Danilo Cavalcante – a Brazilian national – escape and run free for hours before notifying residents. The ones who “forgot” to list a county office for election on the primary ballot – no one filed to run in either party. The county treasurer who appears to be running a “side hustle” – being paid to oversee the “estates” of the deceased for fees, with questions mounting about her integrity. The same commissioners who wasted $20 million buying COVID tests they never used from someone who happened to be a political donor to another local Democratic official.
Whether because they were rejecting the GOP brand, new residents, or because their priorities were shifting, voters either assumed that it didn’t matter which party ran their county, town, or schools; or, they were willing to take the chance – and see what would happen.
Bigger government. New C-suite, six-figure jobs. Failing to keep the “trains running on time.” Endangering public safety. Rewarding insiders with taxpayer money. Higher taxes.
Suburban voters: How’s that working out?
