What’s the Difference Between Garrity and Mastriano?

Three years ago, Josh Shapiro delivered a decisive victory in his gubernatorial race against Doug Mastriano, a state Senator with a strong base of support and a career of questionable opinions and actions. 

Mastriano was not the Republican establishment's candidate. He defeated a large field, including a former member of Congress and the state Senate Majority Leader. 

Normally, after a contested primary, the party coalesces around the victorious candidate, but in the general election, Mastriano struggled to raise money and attract support from mainstream Republicans. Mastriano got blown out in the general. 

Now, the Republican establishment is again trying to stop Mastriano and his supporters. Republicans are on a stronger footing now than in 2022. 

The Democratic voter registration edge is down to less than 60,000, and Pennsylvania Republicans are basking in a Trump victory that helped to return him to the White House. 

There are parallels between Mastriano and Trump. Both have strong bases. They’re both outspoken and unapologetic. But while Pennsylvania Republicans have embraced Trump, they have not done the same with Mastriano. 

For the last several months, Mastriano has hinted that he wants to run for governor. And the Republican establishment has cut him off at every turn. They’ve activated their fundraising networks for state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. The state Republican Party, along with much of the establishment apparatus, endorsed her. 

But even as establishment Republicans have decided that Garrity is their candidate, the base has not made its decision. 

In general election polling, there’s no meaningful difference between Garrity and Mastriano's performance against Gov. Shapiro.  According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, Mastriano trails Shapiro 56% to 39%, while Gerrity trails Shapiro 55% to 39%. 

In limited primary election polling, Mastriano crushes Garrity. In a recent poll of Republican primary voters, he led her 39% to 20%.

It’s tough to explain the polls as anything other than Republican primary voters liking Mastriano much more, while general election voters don’t see a difference. 

Garrity isn't a newcomer who just needs to build up name ID. She's run and won in two statewide elections. She's been a statewide elected official since 2021 and was just on the ballot – and won – in 2024. 

Compare that to Mastriano, a state senator three years removed from his last statewide election. 

If anything, you could make a case that Mastriano has a higher general election ceiling than Garrity. 

For years, establishment Republicans turned their noses up at Trump. In 2016, Pat Toomey refused to say he supported his party’s candidate for president until election day. Other Republican leaders endorsed his opponents and only hesitantly supported Trump’s candidacy. Some stayed on the sidelines or switched parties. 

Trump just kept winning. 

He ignored all of the elites who said he was too extreme or crass. Trump proved the establishment wrong every step of the way and now rules over his party, which he has remade in his image. 

Mastriano has the same opportunity here in Pennsylvania. He has a base, and the electorate continues to shift to the right, making some of his previously extreme positions less outliers in the political spectrum. 

Mastriano has defied convention for his entire political career, and if he looks at the 2026 playing field in the governor's race, he’ll see a wide opening to become the Republican nominee and consolidate the party just as Trump did in 2016.