The Importance of Pennsylvania's Special House Elections
In Pennsylvania, five distinct geographical pockets will partake in a historic changing-of-hands. Due to the resignation of five state representatives, there will be five special elections occurring at different times from February 24th to May 19th. Voters should value this opportunity and scrutinize the people running to fill the remainder of these terms.
Unique to this process, too, comes the way that the two major parties select their nominees. Typically, Pennsylvanians will vote in a primary specific to their voter registration in the spring. In these situations, however, local political committees convene to nominate a candidate to appear on the special election ballot. As Chair of the Blair County Republican Party, I received the opportunity to preside over one of these historic special meetings.
In counties where the seat includes two counties, such as the 193rd, the state parties' moderate delegates submitted from the respective counties to vote on their nominee. This special nomination process may seem the cloudiest to the average voter, as it supersedes the understanding of how a normal nomination (primary) occurs. Title 25 P.S. Elections & Electoral Districts § 2779 describes this process.
In three of the cases (Schmitt, Ecker, and Miller), the 2024 winners ran for judge in their respective counties in 2025 and won. In the other seat (Siegel), the state representative successfully ran for Lehigh County Executive. More recently, Rep. Seth Grove (R- York) resigned to avoid a conflict of interest with a new position that he accepted. With that said, the outcome will likely produce the same result rather than a shift of power in the Pennsylvania House. The 22nd and 42nd districts (Miller and Siegel) will vote on February 24th, and the 79th and 193rd districts (Schmitt and Ecker) will vote on March 17th. The 196th (Grove) will vote on May 19th, the same day as the primary.
So, as the law describes, the window for a special election proves short. Given that nominations occurred in January 2026 and the latest elections happen on May 19th, how will candidates operate in this narrow passage? The political lockdown of respective parties in each district dilutes most electoral complexity, but the possibility remains that either party could see an upset with Republicans flipping the state House or Democrats cementing their majority.
If public statements amount to action, it appears that all parties involved will take their specials seriously. Following some upsets in 2025 across the country, such as the Lancaster Senate seat that Democrats won for the first time since 1889, no candidate, committee, or voter should rest on their laurels. On the flipside, Morning Consult polling shows many key areas trending upward for Republicans – and President Trump – from their latest data.
As of January 18th, the trends for key issues such as “the economy, health care, immigration, energy, national security, Medicare & Social Security, the national debt, taxes, and trade” all improved in favor of the President’s handling of said issues when compared to both the latest poll (January 12th) and, crucially, the surveys taken before the November 2025 general election.
With all this said, the largest challenge for anyone vested in the outcome of these elections will be turnout. While the November 2025 election produced a higher turnout than 37% in 2023, it still barely eclipsed 42% – meaning 58% of voters in the Commonwealth dismissed the importance of these elections. Considering that four of five of these races will take place in the winter season, nobody knows the impact a blizzard or massive frost could portend for turnout.
Before these resignations, the Pennsylvania House sat presumptuously divided, with 102 Democrats and 101 Republicans filling the chamber. These resignations didn’t shift the partisan makeup at all, as two of the aforementioned resignations are Democrats, and the other three Republicans. Voters should make a plan to vote, whether on February 24th or March 17th, to ensure their districts’ representation in Harrisburg. Republicans especially should consider that winning back the House would further prevent Shapiro from claiming that he won a Democratic monopoly on Harrisburg, should the narrow Republican majority in the Senate collapse come this fall.
