Shapiro Is Missing the Vibe Shift on Radical Gender Issues

Earlier this decade, amid the Covid era, the news of Lia Thomas, a transgender Penn swimmer competing on the women’s team, evoked national outrage and raised the question: in what world is this fair?

It encapsulated a fundamental disconnect from reality that hurt Democrats electorally in 2024. Regular voters perceived that Democrats had drifted far from what is considered normal on issues of gender and sexuality. The Trump presidential campaign effectively hammered this point home in Pennsylvania and nationally, closing the race with the memorable campaign ad: “Kamala’s for they/them. President Trump is for you.”

In our divisive political culture, the term “80-20 issue” is employed frequently – and often without evidence. But on the issue of biological men and women competing in sports, it continues to be one of only a few consistent landslide issues. Almost everybody views it as unfair.

There have been some quiet attempts to reckon with this public perception issue, with Democrats from California Gov. Gavin Newsom to Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton questioning party orthodoxy on biological men and women competing in the same sports.

Gov. Josh Shapiro has yet to hear the news.

When Harrisburg Republicans and a handful of Democrats passed a bill from the state Senate to “Save Women’s Sports,” separating biological boys and girls in sports and locker rooms, Shapiro didn’t simply oppose it. He doubled down, calling its supporters “extremist.”

He then told Axios earlier this year that he may have a different “personal” stance on transgender athletes. But the bill is being held up in the Democratic-controlled state House by the governor and his allies. Girls across Pennsylvania have lost already limited scholarship and competitive opportunities – and at times have been forced into locker rooms with biological boys who are on their teams.

Some question how important this issue is, beyond the high school and college athletes affected. But it is extremely salient for voters because it hits on a question of basic reality. Men and women are, simply, different – physically, biologically, and behaviorally. It’s easily observable. It shapes every corner of the animal kingdom. People understand this instinctively, which is a problem for Democrats.

The weird vibes don’t end with athletic competitions. Women’s spaces, including homeless shelters, spas and prisons, are no longer just for biological women. And the issue of medical gender transition for children is incredibly significant, with permanent medical decisions being made and a host of blue states censuring care providers and officials who dare to question it. Countries from Canada and the UK to Australia and Sweden have moved away from “affirmation-only” models, but blue states continue to medically transition children and adolescents.

The progressive obsession with gender ideology has alienated countless voters, including a not-insignificant number of gays and lesbians – people whom Vice President JD Vance aptly shouted out during the campaign.

In Harrisburg, Republicans in the House and Senate are rallying to try to get the sports and locker rooms bill passed out of the House – a likely outcome if House Majority Leader Matt Bradford allowed his members to vote on it. But he, like Shapiro, remains recalcitrant.

And the advocacy organization that I run, Voices of Americans, is going on offense for the first time on this issue, urging state officials to be normal and resolve this bizarre fixation.

It’s a dangerous position for our governor, especially as his ambitions for 2028 are plainly obvious. Shapiro has to please two incompatible audiences: the restive, activist Democratic base needed to win the primary, and the regular voters whom Democrats will need to recapture the White House in 2028.

If Democrats want a path back from the political wilderness, now is the time. Will they choose reality or ideology?

For their own sake, they’d better catch the vibe shift – or they might get lapped.