Fetterman’s Most Likely '28 Democratic Primary Opponents

This week’s primary in Pennsylvania will dominate headlines, though another primary – the Democrats’ fight for U.S. Sen. John Fetterman’s seat in 2028 – is already looming large.

Of course, it’s unclear if Fetterman will stand for re-election. He is not raising much money, and he sports higher job approval numbers among Republicans than with his fellow Democrats. Though Fetterman continues to dominate the state’s political attention economy, Democrats are increasingly dismayed by his positions, and political observers are now speculating if he’ll forego a primary altogether or run again as an Independent. Such a move would vault him into the general election, but running that way is harder than it looks.

Who would take on Fetterman in a Democratic primary? As it stands, here are potential contenders:

5. State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta

Kenyatta’s 2018 election victory in the Philadelphia-based 181st House District made him the first openly gay person of color to win a seat in the Legislature. Kenyatta ran for statewide office (and lost) in both 2022 and 2024. In 2024, he lost the race for Auditor General to incumbent Republican Tim DeFoor by a 51-46% margin.

In 2022, he ran for state Senate and finished in third place (of four), with 11% of the vote. He tried unsuccessfully to run to the left of Fetterman, truly a fool’s errand that year.

Though Kenyatta lost that year, he did what he really set out to do, which was introducing himself to state Democratic leaders outside Philadelphia. It’s clear he’s bored in the state House and certainly does not think it can contain him, so who are we to get in his way? He also serves as Vice Chair of the DNC, a largely ceremonial post.

Could he try again to run to the left of Fetterman in 2028? For sure, as that lane is as wide as a super-highway. Perhaps he might run again for Auditor General in 2026, since DeFoor is term-limited there. But for now, we cannot totally discount the possibility of another Senate run.

4. U.S. Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, Democrat from the 6th District (Chester and Berks counties)

Back in 2018, after the Democratic majority on the state Supreme Court took it upon themselves to unilaterally draw new congressional districts, Houlahan won the 6th congressional district, along with Madeleine Dean in the 4th district, Mary Gay Scanlon in the 5th district, and Susan Wild in the 7th district.

Houlahan has proven to be a savvy politico and a tremendous fundraiser, which has catapulted her to the top of many contender lists. She has not had to really sweat any of her re-elections since then, though this year her GOP opponent, Marty Young, has impressive credentials and is a fellow veteran.

Houlahan’s district is completely within the Philadelphia media market, the largest in the state, and the most important one in a Democratic primary. Moreover, the the state’s has never elected a woman to the U.S. Senate or as governor.

So far, Houlahan has not shown any interest in running for higher office, but her profile, location, and cash on hand numbers will always keep her in these conversations.

3. Former U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb

Lamb served in Congress from a district in western Pennsylvania for two terms before jumping into 2022’s open seat primary for the U.S. Senate, where he finished a distant second to Fetterman. He sports strong pro-union bona fides, plus a military background (Marine Corps JAG), and is also the scion of a prominent western Pennsylvania Democratic family. He has been traveling across the state for the past year, essentially campaigning against Fetterman as the Senator’s perceived rightward tilt intensified.

Following his loss, Lamb has been working at a well-known law firm, and politicos have mentioned him as an ideal Democratic nominee for Attorney General in 2028, when GOP incumbent Dave Sunday is up for reelection.

Lamb has certainly increased and sharpened his image with Democratic party leaders, especially those who frequent summer picnics and rallies, but is that enough to erase campaign memories of 2022?

That year, he ran to the right of Fetterman, positioning himself as a moderate. Would Lamb do that again in 2028? Would Democratic primary voters value that type of candidate? And would Fetterman view him as an easy opponent to defeat again, and therefore urge him to run?

2. U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio

Keep in mind that Deluzio and Lamb share a common background. In fact, he took Lamb’s place in Congress in 2022. He is a western Pennsylvanian, pro union, has a military background (an Annapolis gradudate), and on the moderate side in the House.

They cannot both run at the same time for the same slot, as they are essentially in the same lane. One advantage that Deluzio has over Lamb is that he currently holds office, and therefore has a higher profile and somewhat easier ability to raise campaign funds.

In the House, he serves on the Transportation Committee and on Armed Services, both higher profile slots with good fundraising bona fides.

On the other hand, he is relatively new to the House (in just his second term) and has already watched his predecessor put it all on the line for a statewide run and fall short.

1. U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle

With Dwight Evans in Philadelphia-based third district retiring at the end of this year, Boyle is now Philadelphia’s highest profile federal official. He is also ranking member (most senior member of the minority party) on the House Budget Committee, a Notre Dame graduate, and a former civilian advisor to the Defense Department.

Launching a run from Philadelphia, as ranking member on the Budget Committee, and as a member of the Ways and Means Committee, are all top notch, and not to be dismissed.

He has a safe seat in Philadelphia and so the worry would be that his political chops have dulled over the years – and with a young family, does he want to undertake the grueling fundraising and travel schedule needed to run for, and keep, a statewide office?

It’s easy to say you’d like to challenge Fetterman when you’re lounging backstage in the green room at the MSNOW – but it’s quite different to begin traveling the state and putting in the grunt work needed to get such a race off the ground.

A wild card: what role, if any, would a Gov. Shapiro (or a former Gov. Shapiro) play in this race? It’s well known that he and Fetterman do not get along, at all, and he’s likely to want as much say in a possible replacement for him as other Democrats.

What role does the state Democratic Party play in this? It has been silent as other party members  have increasingly criticized Fetterman publicly in the past six months. Does Fetterman care? Aren’t his people asking the state party for air cover and backup?

And who wasn’t mentioned here? Pennsylvania’s invisible man, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis.

Of course, if Fetterman opts against running for reelection, or decides to take the Independent route, then the Senate primary would completely change. Would aspiring Democrats flock to the high-profile race, or would they shy away, concerned that they, rather than the GOP nominee, would be more likely to lose votes to Fetterman?

As always, Pennsylvania politics continues to prove fascinating.