Dems Are in a Strong Position to Hold PA Senate Seat
Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. has quietly built one of the most successful political legacies in Pennsylvania history. Prior to Casey’s 2018 reelection victory, never before had a Pennsylvania Democrat won three terms to the United States Senate. As the Scranton native eyes his 2024 reelection campaign, he not only boasts decisive front-runner status but also has the opportunity to help the Democratic Party maintain control of the Senate.
Hailing from the region of Northeast Pennsylvania that President Joe Biden calls home and son to one of Pennsylvania’s most popular governors, Sen. Casey has been steeped in politics since day one. His father, the late Gov. Bob Casey, gained national notoriety as a leading pro-life Democrat; that position has been foundational to Sen. Casey’s ideological priorities and political successes, though he has moved closer to the Democratic Party’s pro-choice ranks in recent years.
Casey’s career should be evaluated by politicians across the nation as a case study in consistently winning big in a swing state where margins should be much closer. Then serving as Pennsylvania State Treasurer, Bob Casey, Jr. bested two-term incumbent Republican and rising star Rick Santorum in the 2006 election for U.S. Senate by 17 points. This remains the largest victory margin for any Democratic U.S. Senate nominee from Pennsylvania. A nine-point victory in his 2012 Senate reelection was followed by his 2018 defeat of Trump-endorsed four-term U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta.
The national political winds have always blown in Casey’s direction. Each of his three Senate races – in 2006, 2012, and 2018 – were buoyed by favorable national trends for Democrats. That won’t be the case in 2024, as Biden’s reelection campaign will drive the narrative, and Biden’s approval ratings have remained in the low 40s for the majority of his presidency.
Still, Democrats should remain confident in Casey’s chances in 2024. As the powerhouse Philadelphia collar counties – Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware – trend bluer and turn out voters in greater numbers, Casey could see over one million votes in these regions. The suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are tailormade for Casey’s moderate approach to governance, which is amenable to the suburban women who swing elections and helped elevate Biden to the White House in 2020 on the back of historically high turnout. Look for Casey to run up the score in the southeast and south-central Pennsylvania, with his blue-collar style also allowing him to cut into margins in historically Democratic counties that have trended red throughout the commonwealth.
Casey is also unlikely to face a serious primary challenge, freeing his campaign to concentrate all fundraising, messaging, and resources toward winning in November, something recently elected Gov. Josh Shapiro just demonstrated is a tremendous advantage. And the Republican primary for Senate is fractured, with establishment-backed Dave McCormick and Trump-inspired Doug Mastriano both closing in on campaign launches. This worries many GOP insiders, as this dynamic will pit differing factions of the Republican Party against one another, potentially weakening both candidates ahead of a November showdown with Casey.
Whoever the Republicans nominate will have to contend with Casey’s unmatched name recognition. Pennsylvanians have been circling the Casey name on their ballots since 1969, when Casey, Sr. won his first statewide campaign as auditor general. Moreover, Sen. Casey has long prioritized organized labor, and is once again likely to enjoy broad support from influential unions across Pennsylvania, staking a claim to the support of the commonwealth’s more than 700,000 union employees.
If we’ve learned anything from politics in the Trump era, it’s that the electorate is remarkably unpredictable, and we shouldn’t take anything for granted. But with Casey’s unique ability to relate to moderate and swing voters and win decisively in battleground terrains, the Democratic Party is in a strong position to hold Pennsylvania.
