Pennsylvania Republicans Closing the Gap On Democrats
Pennsylvania Republicans have something to be excited about: supporters of the GOP have closed the gap with Democrats when it comes to voter registration in the Keystone State.
According to research from Nick Field of the Pennsylvania Capital-Star, Republicans have chipped away at the 549,288 registered voter advantage that Democrats in Pennsylvania held over the Republican Party, as the GOP has signed up 103,398 newly registered members within the state. Democrats now have a 445,890 registered-voter lead in the commonwealth. That is just under a 19% swing in approximately one year.
This is important for numerous reasons. Republicans were told that a red wave was coming in the 2022 mid-terms, but the wave failed to materialize. In Pennsylvania, Democrats John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro won their Senate and gubernatorial races with relative ease, and nationally the GOP only narrowly took back the House of Representatives.
My first takeaway from this voter-registration swing is that this is an unexpected momentum for the GOP heading into the 2024 presidential election. Pennsylvania is one of several key battleground states, and data suggest that President Joe Biden could have a problem securing a victory here, especially in bellweather counties such as Northampton County.
Republicans have made the most noticeable shift in Pennsylvania’s Southeast region, which makes up eight counties in and around the greater Philadelphia area. Philadelphia County saw 26,040 newly registered Republicans. Within the city limits, Democrats hold approximately a seven-to-one voter registration advantage, which makes it almost impossible for a Republican to become mayor. On Election Day, it’s all but a formality that Democrat Charelle Parker will become the city’s next mayor, as she is widely expected to defeat Republican David Oh. Still, the number of new Republicans is encouraging.
Berks County saw a solid jump in GOP registrations as well, gaining an additional 3,937 newly registered Republican voters, followed closely by Bucks County, with 3,497. These new Republican voters are a particularly good sign in Bucks County, which faces some crucial school board elections and a strong push from Democrats in those races.
Lehigh County saw a GOP spike, with 2,969 new voters, as did Northampton County, which picked up 2,349 more. Northampton County, which largely consists of Easton and parts of Bethlehem, is another bellweather county that observers should keep their eyes on during Election Night.
In Southwest Pennsylvania, all twelve counties shifted Republican, highlighted by Allegheny County getting a bump of 16,024.
Southcentral Pennsylvania saw nine out of ten counties go GOP, led by York, which gained 1,860 new voters of Republican affiliation. Cumberland County was the lone county that went Democrat.
Northwest Pennsylvania was another clean sweep for the GOP, with all eight counties, led by Erie County and its 2,989 new Republican voters. Republicans captured all nine counties in Northeast Pennsylvania, paced by Luzerne County, at 3,986, followed by Lackawanna County, at 2,836.
In Central Pennsylvania’s twenty smaller counties, nineteen went red, with Northumberland County leading the way with 1,053.
Some say that Pennsylvania is now a purple state; I contend that it remains blue. But with the failures of many Democratic policies being made painfully evident to voters, Democrats are seeing their grip loosen on a crucial blue state.
None of this means that Republicans have won the day. Could it mean more victories for the GOP in Novembers to come? Perhaps. If the Republican Party can identify quality candidates, with good messaging, anything is possible.
The Keystone State is not a lost cause for the GOP. Republicans still have a lot of work to do, but they have made some serious gains. Time will tell whether they can keep the ball rolling.
