Can the Economy Save Trump's Polling Underperformance?
President Donald Trump has just passed the proverbial 100-day mark of his presidency, following his November victory with 49.8% of the national popular vote, with an Electoral College win by a 312 to 226 margin.
But Trump’s honeymoon is over. According to a composite of national polling at RealClearPolitics, Trump’s average approval rating is 45.2%, while a higher 52.4% disapprove of the job he is doing (as of April 29). In critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, Trump’s approval rating is also 46% according to a recent Susquehanna Polling and Research survey conducted March 17-23 with 700 likely voters.
Trump is clearly underperforming his national popular vote. But more important, he is the only president in more than 70 years to have an approval rating after 3 months in office below 50%. For comparison, according to media reports, the average approval rating for all presidents after 3 months in office (looking at the period 1952 to 2020) is a commanding 60%.
Trump is considerably below this benchmark. The highest, at 70% or higher, includes former Presidents John F. Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower. Both had strong mandates from the populace and very high favorability ratings. Former Presidents Barack Obama, Ronald Reagan, and even Jimmy Carter all had approval ratings above 60% after months. Below this, both George Bushes, Joe Biden, and Bill Clinton all polled in the mid to high 50% range after 3 months. I discussed these figures in a recent interview with reporter Mark Hall from DC News Now.
This leaves Trump as the lone standout. Even looking at Trump’s first term from 2017-2020, his average first-year approval rating was 40% (according to RealClearPolitics), far below Biden (50%), Obama (56%), and George W. Bush (65%).
What happened? Trump’s approval rating seems to have taken a dive in the March-April timetable after he announced sweeping tariffs on foreign countries on April 2. These tariffs triggered a steep decline in the stock market. And publicity from the media has been withering. This has all served to shake Americans’ confidence that the country is on the right track after making a change in their chief executive.
But Trump has a chance to turn the narrative around if he can show most Americans that he is a strong steward on the economy and inflation. According to publicly-released national polling, only 44% of Americans have confidence in Trump to do the “right thing” on the economy. A higher 55% don’t trust him. Americans want relief from high grocery bills and a beleaguered economy; businesses are also not spending new capital. The problem is that some GDP forecasts for the 1st quarter of 2025 are expected to show negative growth. Some economists are even warning of a recession, citing declining consumer confidence and volatile stock market conditions. This does not bode well for Team Trump.
Trump must show how his tariffs will help American consumers in the long run, and that he is taking steps to curb inflation and heal the sick economy in the short term, too. Conceptually, according to Gallup, 53% of Americans say they support using tariffs as a negotiating tactic to bring foreign countries to the table. But blaming tariffs is an easy target – a scapegoat for consumers who are worried about the economy and untamed inflation. So, Trump hasn’t succeeded in convincing Americans his tariffs have an upside. This explains his 90-day pause on some of the most punitive tariffs. Clearly, more needs to be done.
Trump needs to change the narrative on the economy, starting by winning back the support of independents. Exit polls in 2024 showed immigration and the economy were the top issues influencing independents’ minds, and economy/immigration voters voted for Trump by big margins. The hitch: current polling shows less than 50% of Americans rate Trump “excellent or good” on his handling of the economy, and this issue will haunt him in coming months if the economy continues to underperform.
Trump has already won the narrative on immigration, since a majority of Americans continue to give Trump the benefit of the doubt and believe he is doing the right thing on deportations. The problem is that polling shows more than 50% of Independents disapprove of the current President’s job performance, a key constituency he won in 2024. It’s time for the Trump administration to change the narrative. If support for the president’s handling of the economy grows (with Independents and other voters), his polling numbers will, too.
