More Questions Than Answers in Recent PA Primary

Even in an off-year primary, Pennsylvania continues to garner the attention of politicians and analysts hoping to understand the state’s political puzzle. Indeed, the recent primary offered insights into trends while also highlighting battles between woke and old-guard factions of the Democratic Party in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Is Pennsylvania now a “red” state after the 2024 election? Possibly. Yet, as in years without President Trump on the ballot, more Democratic voters showed up in this off-year election. Is Pennsylvania a “blue” state when Trump isn’t on the ballot? Maybe. On the other hand, the voter registration trend of the last decade toward the GOP has taken off like a SpaceX rocket. Among active voters, the Democrats’ generation-ago 1,000,000 voter registration advantage is now only about 40,000 voters. This is a rounding error in a state with 8 million voters.

So, is Pennsylvania a “purple” state? Probably. Here are the latest pieces added to the Pennsylvania puzzle, with added insights into the progressive vs. old-guard battle among Democratic factions in the state’s two major cities. These additional pieces to the puzzle provide more information, but not more clarity to which direction the state is heading.

There was a mixed message for both parties. For the GOP, they can take solace in the fact that the percentage of those voting with mail-in ballots has grown to 24% -- up from 16% in 2023. On the other hand, the bad news for the GOP comes from the good news for Democrats, as has been reflected across the nation. Democratic turnout was 4% higher than GOP turnout. But there’s another wild card: the registration trend of the last few years – especially the last 2 years – could put the GOP ahead of the Democrats in 2026, perhaps even by this year’s election day.

Though a tiny snapshot, the primary should serve as a reminder to Republicans that Democratic activists never have an “off-year” election. They are focused on judges, school board members, council people, and supervisors. Government at every level is their oxygen and they never rest. This underscores the GOP’s challenge to figure out how to run winning campaigns without Trump on the ballot.

The positive note for the GOP is that more and more Pennsylvanians are joining their party – moreover, a significant number are choosing to leave the Democratic Party. Yet the Democrats continue to show that their activists are more motivated and get more of their voters to vote. They get more water out of the sponge. Of note, their “GOTV” efforts are helped by the fact that nearly 44% of their primary voters voted by mail.

Then, there’s the battle for which faction controls the power within the Democratic Party. For the second time in two years, Allegheny County was home to a battle among two factions: woke/progressive vs. traditional/old-guard. In the 2023 race for Allegheny County district attorney, the progressive/social-justice candidate, Matt Dugan, won the primary battle – 55.8% to 44.2% – over incumbent, law-and-order Democrat, Steve Zappala. But that fall, Zappala – running as the Republican nominee (having been written in during the primary) won the war, defeating Dugan by a nearly 3-point margin. In that race, old-guard Democrats teamed-up with Republicans, business leaders, the FOP and others to win the war – despite having lost the primary battle.

This year, a similar battle has played out for mayor of Pittsburgh. The incumbent, progressive mayor Ed Gainey, was challenged by County Controller Corey O’Connor. Like Zappala, O’Connor comes from a Democratic establishment family. Gainey governed from the far-left – and governed poorly. It was a race about competence with elements of national ideological trends (woke vs. establishment) and local voting and demographic dynamics.

With a coalition of Democrats and business leaders, O’Connor beat the incumbent – 52.9% to 47.1%. He showed how to build a successful coalition.

In Philadelphia, the dynamics were different. Incumbent progressive district attorney Larry Krasner is seeking a third term. His challenger was a former local judge, Patrick Dugan. Despite Philadelphia Democrats not endorsing either candidate, Mayor Cherelle Parker remained silent and the police, firemen, and building trades backed Dugan. Krasner prevailed, though, handily prevailed (64.4% to 35.6%). The question is whether the old-guard was truly unable or unwilling to take on the progressive Krasner. However, like Zappala, Dugan won the GOP nomination as a write in. Will Dugan accept it? And, if so, could a Zappala-like coalition form to oust Krasner? Will Philadelphia have an Allegheny-style battle of progressive/woke vs. old-guard Democrats, trade unions, and business leaders?

As we look to this fall – and peek into 2026 – we know a bit more about Pennsylvania elections. If the GOP can motivate its growing pool of voters to vote, they can do well. Can the Democrats continue to motivate their voters more successfully to show up this fall? Will anti-Trump still be enough?

In addition, the race that was not part of the primary will take place this fall. Three Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices face the voters with retention races. This usually ignored, uneventful, non-combative election could become a flashpoint in our state – and beyond. How will this impact registration, mail-in voting, and turnout?

Will Pennsylvania keep trending red, push back to blue, or give us a purple result?

There are more questions than an answers. It’s anybody’s game.