Trump's Friction of Strategy vs. Tactics

As President Trump continues his whirlwind of activity – flooding the zone as it’s called – voters are forced to constantly process a torrent of information on wide-ranging issues. It’s our new normal, we are told.

So, it’s not surprising to see fissures developing on certain issues, as voters tease out the nuances cascading across that whirlwind. To me, this is becoming a through point in America, and Pennsylvania, politics now: voters agreeing more with President Trump’s goals, but not so much with his approach to accomplishing those goals.

It’s a case of strategy vs. tactics.

All this is happening against a backdrop of a lower, though steadying, job approval score for Trump. According to the recent CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump’s approval rating is at 42 percent, down two percentage points from September. But as the survey found, people tend to like Trump’s goals (47%) relatively more than his approach (37%). There’s a 10-point gap: 53% of voters in the dislike what Trump wants to accomplish (his strategy), but more – 63% – dislike his approach to accomplishing his goals (tactics).

The pollsters concluded: “In general, two-thirds of Americans feel Donald Trump is trying to increase the powers of a president. That's not collectively what they’d want; most would say not to change those powers.”

Meanwhile, a poll conducted by the Democratic firm Hart Research Associates for a center-left pro-immigration group found that “67 percent of voters object to arrests in places of worship, and 60 percent object to arrests in schools.”

This an example of a specific tactic in the immigration crackdown: arresting alleged illegal immigrants in churches/temples, etc., and in schools, which tests more poorly with voters than the overall immigration issue.

A new New York Times/Siena survey out this past week found that while 54% favor the Trump administration’s plan to deport illegal immigrants now living here, 52% disapprove of his handling of the immigration issue, “and 51%  said his actions around immigration enforcement had gone too far.”

And Pew Research noted in March: “As the new Trump administration begins to carry out immigration enforcement, Americans largely agree that at least some immigrants living in the United States illegally should be deported, in particular those who have committed violent crimes. However, less consensus exists on how the government should carry out deportations.”

This approach gap on the immigration issue began to appear as the Trump administration first intensified its enforcement in the spring and has been exacerbated by its plans to send troops to cities such as Chicago and Portland.

It’s clear that voters have split into three groups on immigration:

1. those opposed to the crack down on illegal immigration;

2. those who agree with the goal of the crackdown and the way it is being implemented (both pro-strategy / pro-tactics); and,

3. those who agree with the goal of the crackdown, but not the way it is being implemented. (pro-strategy/anti-tactics).

The voters in group 1 are comprised of Democrats and some Independents while group 2 is mostly Republicans. That meansgGroup 3 (Pro-strategy/anti tactics) must be comprised primarily of Republicans and some Independents, as almost no Democrats approved of the immigration crack down in the first place.

A Wall Street Journal poll in July “found that while most Americans supported the deportation of undocumented immigrants, a majority opposed methods like mass deportation without due process.”

This is all happening against a backdrop of rising support for immigration and its place in American society. As Gallup wrote in July: “Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year, with the share wanting immigration reduced dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30% today. At the same time, a record-high 79% of U.S. adults say immigration is a good thing for the country. Republicans are the only group still showing at least plurality support for reducing immigration. Independents are most likely to favor maintaining current levels, while a plurality of Democrats favor increasing it.”

And PBS noted, “Only about [20%] 2 in 10 U.S. adults say immigration is a bad thing right now, down from 32% last year.”

Trump’s approval rating here in Pennsylvania as recently reported by Yahoo News is at 46%.

With the GOP now behind the 8-ball on public opinion vis-à-vis the federal government shut down, it’s key that it works diligently to win back those pro-strategy/anti-tactic voters.