Pennsylvania: Center Stage, Again, in 2026
The Pennsylvania state House is Democratic-run – by one seat. The state Senate is Republican-run – by two seats. Meanwhile, at the national level, the U.S. House has a GOP majority, but if the party loses three seats, then it will shift to Democrats. The GOP in Pennsylvania has three members of Congress who won by less than 2% in 2024. The Democratic governor, running for reelection, wants to run for president in 2028. His likely GOP gubernatorial opponent is the state Treasurer – the leading vote-getter in Pennsylvania history.
To paraphrase: “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s gonna be a bumpy election.”
For what seems like the 100th time, Pennsylvania will be the keystone state – for electoral battles in our state but also the nation. Either party could gain the upper hand, or it could be split, yet again. It will be a battle of issues, personalities, partisanship, tactic, and funding – and the inevitable wild card.
The fault lines – the opportunities and challenges – for the candidates and their parties will ultimately decide the winners. It will also determine whether it’s a clean sweep or purple Pennsylvania.
The governor’s race is the marquee event, and illustrative of how races could break either way. The incumbent is the quintessential politician who’s never lost a race. He bought suburban Democrat “stock” in the early 1990s, when it was trading as a penny stock. Now, it’s on the “S&P 500,” and he’s never looked back. He has his sights on Pennsylvania Avenue – whether his fellow Democrats want that or not. He’s a prolific fundraiser who enjoys campaigning more than governing – his strength and weakness. His approval ratings are high, yet they’re largely based on image instead of policy. And yet that might be a positive.
If the GOP nominates state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, Shapiro will face his toughest opponent since he was first elected to the state House – a lifetime of elective office. She’s a tireless campaigner who can point to two things that Shapiro cannot: private-sector experience and military service in the Middle East. (The latter takes a page from the Democrats’ 2025 and 2026 playbook – looking to veterans as candidates.)
When his female opponent brings up the much talked about sexual harassment/missing email scandal involving his former cabinet member, who was also a top aide with him at the Attorney General’s office, how will Shapiro react? Will voters buy his “I knew nothing about it” defense? So far, this story had limited exposure but for Broad and Liberty, but Shapiro’s recent profile in The Atlantic has pushed it to the forefront.
Voter registration has largely been trending to the GOP. What had been a 1 million-vote Democrat advantage a generation ago is down to about 100,000 – only about half that among “active” voters. Yet, the fastest growing segment has been independent/no-party voters. Will the partisan gap continue to close? Will it matter? The GOP has won races when the Democrat-advantage was more than 250,000 voters. And yet, Republicans just lost every statewide race by significant margins – in spite of their newfound registration surge.
And when it comes to casting votes, the partisan trends keep shifting. When “no-excuse” mail-in voting started, Democrats voting by mail far outnumbered the GOP. In 2020, it was nearly 5 to 1. By 2024, the GOP had gotten the ratio under 2.5 to 1, helping ensure a statewide sweep. Plus, they outperformed on Election Day by more than 700,000 votes.
But the Democratic sweep in 2025 was fueled by a dual threat. Their mail-in voting advantage – with a very late surge – was back over 3-1. And in a first in the modern “mail-in era,” Democrats got more votes on Election Day than the GOP.
In total, Democrat turnout beat the GOP by 9%. A reminder that Democrats’ opposition to Trump extends to the entire GOP and almost never rests. Meanwhile, a significant block of GOP voters are Trump-only voters. Whether the GOP figures that out may hold the largest key to 2026.
There’s good and bad news for Pennsylvanians. There’s a war for control of the state legislature (and Congress). Yet, there are so few seats in play that most won’t be inundated with mail, door-knockers, pop-up ads, and commercials during Landman.
While a surprise retirement, miscue, or rock-star challenger may emerge – of the 229 legislative seats up for grabs, only a dozen will be on the radar of partisan operatives, donors, and outside interest groups. The spending in those targeted Pennsylvania state legislative races will resemble congressional races. This was seen in 2024 in, of all places, greater Johnstown, where the parties spent about $9 million for the deciding seat for state House control.
The targets will be purple seats, and GOP seats in areas trending blue, and Democrat seats in areas trending red.
Yet, after all the ads and door knocking, there’s often an issue, national news story, or candidacy that may change the equation. Think about the recent past and how elections changed with something that wasn’t initially on our radar: Covid, “they/them versus us,” and “affordability.”
Here we go, again.
