Can Josh Shapiro Beat Kamala Harris?
Kamala Harris addressed the Democratic National Committee last week with a new message: “Both parties have failed to hold the public’s trust.” When she mentioned “the future,” someone shouted “You!” Her book tour for “107 Days” expands to the critical early primary state South Carolina and cities with large Black populations that could give her an ironclad lead on “Super Tuesday.” Summer of Brat 2.0 approaches.
Adrift in a “stuck culture” that has lost any sense of novelty, Americans willingly settle for reboots. We’ve turned our politics into our entertainment and our entertainment into our politics, and neither industry produces anything new. Harris leads the latest Big Data Poll at 31.1%, far ahead of Gavin Newsom (20.3%), Pete Buttigieg (10%), and Josh Shapiro (6.4%). The woman who lost every swing state remains the frontrunner because primary electorates would rather watch the sequel than risk something original.
The historical parallel isn’t flattering. Henry Clay ran for president three times and lost three times, earning the nickname “The Great Compromiser” for his willingness to compromise away victory. William Jennings Bryan managed three nominations and three defeats, his revival-tent populist orations no match for electoral math. Both men became “known quantities” for their loser parties (Clay for the Whigs, Bryan for the Democrats) in an era when familiarity bred nomination rather than contempt. Harris is considerably less eloquent than Bryan and considerably less skilled at dealmaking than Clay, but she has what they had and then some: infrastructure. Black voters determine most Democratic primaries, and she will be that coalition’s default standard-bearer.
This is Pennsylvania’s problem. Josh Shapiro polls at 60% approval in the state and beats JD Vance by ten points in hypothetical matchups. The Trump campaign feared him most among potential VP picks in 2024. A Pennsylvania farm family agreed to host "the governor" for a Harris campaign event, then pulled out when advance teams revealed it was Walz, not Shapiro. The governor who could deliver the Electoral College’s most important battleground sits at 4-6% nationally because he can’t match Harris’s name recognition with primary voters who don’t live here.
Shapiro’s strategy depends on engineering a 2026 gubernatorial blowout to prove he can turn Pennsylvania blue. He’s recruiting congressional candidates, clearing primary fields, remaking the state party apparatus. But even a landslide reelection to the state’s highest office – no guarantee in this purplest of places – won't solve his fundamental problem: Shapiro can win Pennsylvania with the greatest of ease, but he almost certainly can’t win a national primary against someone the base already knows.
Her rivals will cancel each other out anyway. Newsom remains too slick, a man who texts, “Hiking. Will call back,” when Harris phones on the day that Biden drops out. Harris included that anecdote in her memoir. He texted asking why. She replied: “On book tour. Get back to you later.” Two empty-headed Californians who can’t return each other’s calls competing to lose Pennsylvania. Buttigieg offers PowerPoint competence and the killer instincts of Barack Obama (read: none). Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has TikTok charisma in spades. None of them can consolidate what Harris already owns.
So Harris wins the primary and picks another Tim Walz. She'll want someone deferential, someone who shows “no interest in himself, only how he could support Harris,” as the book “2024: How Trump Retook The White House And The Democrats Lost America” had described Walz's interview. She'll want someone who volunteers reasons not to pick them, who admits they’re “really nervous about the debate” and probably won't “do well.” She’ll pick from a safe state that doesn’t matter electorally because that’s what she did last time and that’s what known quantities do.
Pennsylvanians like us will watch this happen. We’ll watch Harris tour South Carolina and Detroit while our governor, someone who could actually win here because he already has, languishes in single digits nationally. We’ll watch her pick a running mate from Minnesota or Illinois or somewhere else that votes Democratic regardless. We’ll watch her lose the state by two points again because “they/them” branding by the opposition will have her looking like an emissary from a foreign country even as her edited 60 Minutes interview reminds voters why Democrats kept her hidden during Biden's presidency.
The promised counterargument is that Trump will leave Republicans in deplorable shape, structurally and financially, by 2028. Perhaps. But Vance actually comes from the Rust Belt and gutted out a tough Senate race in 2022 against center-left Tim Ryan. Harris, meanwhile, lost the Rust Belt and wrote a book about losing. Even against a weakened Republican field, the electoral college math remains unforgiving for someone who couldn’t carry a single swing state with a convicted felon as her opponent.
Bryan at least had a message: currency inflation, opposition to empire, defense of the common man. Clay had legislative achievements: the Missouri Compromise, the Compromise of 1850. Harris has coconut tree memes and vibes. These vibes were insufficient in 2024. Three more years of book tours won’t change the fundamentals. Even so, Democrats will nominate the known quantity, skip over the Pennsylvania governor who could actually deliver the state, and watch Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes slip away once more.
Another tired reboot nobody ordered approaches. The SNL skits and breathless mainstream media coverage will be familiar. So will the ending.
