Hollywood vs Pennsylvania: The Battle for the White House

If Democrats are serious about winning back the White House, the next Democratic primary will look like a clash of coasts: Gavin Newsom versus Josh Shapiro. Hollywood versus Pennsylvania.

Most early polling has California Gov. Newsom as a leading contender alongside former Vice President Harris for the 2028 nomination, though Harris’s early lead means little, and her potential 2028 campaign may not even happen. It’s hard to imagine the Democratic Party choosing to revisit 2024.

But it’s not just Newsom’s clear polling advantage positioning him as the early favorite.

Newsom has emerged as the face of Democratic opposition against President Trump, leading a historic redistricting effort in California that will neutralize Republican gerrymandering in Texas, and inspiring other Democratic states to follow suit. And the coalition of high-profile Democrats praising Newsom’s leadership in the fight against MAGA encompasses every corner of the party.

If Democrats win the midterms, Gavin Newsom may receive more credit than anyone.

Moreover, Newsom is one of the only Democrats with near-universal name recognition. Some of that comes with governing the nation’s largest state – but that kind of national profile is rare. In the last 60 years, only two California governors have reached it: Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

And when you imagine a President, you probably picture someone who looks and talks like Newsom. Barring something dramatic and unexpected, when the debates start, you’ll see Newsom on the center of your TV, flanked by a half dozen candidates on both sides.

That said, Newsom is not the only exciting Gen X governor with a long and undefeated political campaign record.

Josh Shapiro is Pennsylvania’s most popular governor in 30 years, having entered the Governor’s mansion at just 49 years old on the back of a blowout victory in 2022 and continuing that momentum since.

While California may be the country’s largest and most powerful state, presidential elections aren’t won in Hollywood.

They’re won in Pennsylvania.

The nation’s largest swing state, the party that wins Pennsylvania wins the White House. We’ve seen this in five consecutive presidential elections, as it consistently flipped between Republican and Democratic winners that went on to the Oval Office.

And no one knows how to win Pennsylvania like Shapiro.

Quickly ascending from the state legislature to county commissioner, attorney general, and now Governor, Shapiro has maintained high approvals and emerged as a bipartisan problem solver while navigating one of the nation’s only divided state legislatures.

No other presidential candidate can make that argument – and with more voters registering as independents than ever before, Shapiro offers the most valuable currency in modern politics: pragmatic, bipartisan leadership.

Shapiro’s impressive rise caught the attention of the Harris campaign, who nearly chose the Pennsylvanian for VP during the 2024 race, despite his relatively low name ID and experience at the time.

Shapiro should cruise to reelection this cycle, which is shaping up to be a dress rehearsal for the incumbent. Early polling has the governor with a significant lead over his Republican challenger, outdone only by his historic fundraising advantage.

Shapiro’s reelection will keep him top of mind from now until the midterms – continuing to elevate his profile and giving the country a chance to see what Pennsylvanians already know: If Josh Shapiro is the 2028 nominee, Democrats can bank on the most important state on the map.

While the current field is crowded, with several candidates polling ahead of Shapiro, none of them provide a clear roadmap to electoral success like the Keystone State’s Governor. And while primary voters have traditionally prioritized ideology, electability is no longer an abstract concern after losing in 2024.

Even the Democratic Party’s most prominent female and African-American leaders are now exercising caution over the 2028 nominee.

Of course, every candidate has political vulnerabilities. Shapiro’s relationship with Israel could complicate his path to the Democratic nomination, and Newsom may be peaking too early. Remember when Jeb Bush was the presumed frontrunner heading into 2016? Heavy lies the crown – and Hollywood has a bright red target on its back.

But Democrats don’t just need a compelling candidate – they need a winning one. And in modern presidential politics, that still means one thing: Pennsylvania.