39.8 Gigawatts and Counting: Pennsylvania Leads PJM's New Queue

In January, I warned that the PJM power problem was no longer abstract, citing a then-recent capacity auction clearing 6,600 megawatts short of what the grid operator said it needed. I argued then, as many in the industry did, that the fix was new generation and that Pennsylvania, historically a net power producer, was positioned to supply it. But concerns around price caps, PJM's queue process, regulation, and other costs had developers looking elsewhere. PJM's 2025 Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI) was designed to jumpstart new builds by helping ease the queue problems, and conceptually, it was promising. When PJM made its selections, Pennsylvania accounted for just 342 MW of proposed new gas capacity under RRI: far behind Ohio and Virginia, and barely ahead of New Jersey.

These projects still have to clear a multiphase study process, and a quick scan of the list makes clear they'll be competing for the same existing and proposed infrastructure. Even so, the trend line is the right one.

What passed matters more than how many did. Natural gas led every fuel type by capacity: 147 projects, 99.8 GW, more than storage (314 projects, 60 GW) and nuclear (24 projects, 17.3 GW) combined. And Pennsylvania led every state in PJM's footprint of 13 states and the District of Columbia, with 39.8 GW of proposed new generation. For someone who built a career in Pennsylvania energy, that's a full reversal from January, and a world away from last year's RRI numbers.

Source: PJM Interconnection Queue data (Cycle 1, Active Generation Interconnection projects), as of 8/4/2026.

Now, Cycle 1 projects are years from producing a megawatt. The shortage is still a concern in the short term, and PJM is trying to fast-track its way through part of it. On July 31, it opened its Expedited Interconnection Track (EIT), which is a temporary, state-sponsored fast lane for large projects, 250 MW or more, that can be in service within three years and have a state authority backing their siting. PJM will take up to 10 of these a year through 2027, targeting signed interconnection agreements within 10 months instead of the usual multi-year grind. Functionally, it's a more targeted descendant of RRI: identify the projects that matter most for reliability and clear a faster, more certain path for them, without PJM steering winners by technology or price.

The near-term math, meanwhile, has not improved. On July 14, PJM's capacity auction for the 2028/2029 delivery year secured 138,318 megawatts of unforced capacity and cleared at the FERC-approved cap of $325 per megawatt-day, the third consecutive auction to hit its cap. It also came in 6,831 MW short of the region's reliability requirement, a wider gap than the one I wrote about in January. PJM's answer is a one-time backstop: on July 31, it asked FERC to approve a Reliability Backstop Procurement targeting that shortfall, with buying set to begin Sept. 30, alongside an Interim Resource Adequacy Service that would let large loads connect ahead of new supply if they agree to curtail under defined conditions.

None of this means January's shortfall is solved. A full queue is not steel in the ground, and PJM's data shows a wide gap between signed agreements and plants that get built. But the grid was warning Pennsylvania in January, and seven months later developers are answering with more proposed gas capacity than any other state in the region. Whether they get built depends on whether Pennsylvania keeps its permitting, local siting, and infrastructure competitive, or lets the friction that limited its RRI participation reassert itself.

Author’s note on the withdrawal-rate math: PJM's 74% counts the 191 GW that never reached an interconnection agreement plus the 26 GW that signed and then withdrew, for 217 GW of withdrawals against 294 GW studied since 2020. Figures from PJM Inside Lines, March 2026.

William desRosiers is a Texas-based energy and government affairs professional who built his career in Pennsylvania and has long supported energy, education, workforce, historic preservation, and community initiatives across the Commonwealth. The views expressed are his own.