Why Shapiro Doesn't Have a Path to 2028

Josh Shapiro wants to be president more than the Phillies’ Bryce Harper wants to win a World Series. As for being governor? It’s a resume filler – a means to an end.

It’s a theme: moderate rhetoric – filled with platitudes in social media videos – but progressive governing. Meanwhile, his gubernatorial record remains thin.

It’s a genuine problem for Shapiro in the current field of would-be 2028 Democratic presidential candidates. He doesn’t have a record or a lane to run in. Consider the line up.

Gavin Newsom is from California. Democratic activists love California and all it symbolizes more than Eagles fans love Brandon Graham. Plus, Newsom is the darling of magazine profiles that tout his handsomeness while he’s out raising money by the millions.

Kamala Harris has multiple lanes. Democrats “let her down” when she ran in 2024. And she’s a minority female in a demographically changing America. She was also vice president.

Pete Buttigieg is a center-left technocrat who, as a married gay man, has entered the manosphere. Like Shapiro, he has appeared on Colbert and The View. But his media circuit dates back nearly a decade.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is viewed as the “moderate” – winning not a purple, but a ruby-red, state.

Reviewing this line up, Shapiro is in trouble. He doesn’t have the charisma of California’s top executive. He’s not a female or a racial minority. He’s not the angriest. He’s heterosexual. These are steep mountains to climb in today’s Democratic Party.

He’s not even the obvious “moderate” – despite his tireless attempts to make himself relatable to all constituencies.

Shapiro owns no lane because he prefers to be the driver in the middle lane – to cover his options. No constituency is his.

One can’t get both school choice leaders and the teachers unions to love you. One can’t get manufacturers and energy producers to love you if you’re trying to woo climate extremists. Nor can one get pro-family groups to respect you if you call those wanting to protect women’s sports “extremists.” And one can’t expect to get cheers from moderates if constantly fighting with the state’s U.S. Senator, John Fetterman, a fellow Democrat.

Shapiro campaigned as a supporter of school choice. Then he vetoed a requested school choice bill. Plus, he’s cut over $200 million for cyber charter students.

He could be for school choice for parents desperately seeking help, but not if the teachers’ union doesn’t like the program.

On legislation to protect women’s sports, Shapiro once again won’t commit. He hasn’t stated if he would sign or veto it. He says that he wants to ensure that female athletes aren’t disadvantaged yet called the legislation sponsors “extremists.”

In other words, Shapiro could sign the bill so long as it doesn’t offend progressive Democrats.

When former Gov. Tom Wolf unilaterally entered Pennsylvania into the multi-state compact known as RGGI – whereby 13 states pledged to tax – essentially punish – fossil fuel energy producers to subsidize “green energy” corporations, then-Attorney General Shapiro (and at the time a gubernatorial candidate) said that he was “troubled” by Wolf’s actions. This drew applause from the building trades, and jeers from the green fanatics.

But newly-elected Gov. Shapiro went to court to keep Pennsylvania in RGGI – fighting back challenges from building trades. That drew applause from the greens.

Then, he agreed to withdraw Pennsylvania from RGGI. Cheers from Building Trades … jeers from the greens. But then he authored two bills to do what RGGI would have forced us to do – plus more. So here we go, again.

Meanwhile, he has offered tepid support for using Pennsylvania natural gas to grow our economy and lower energy costs.

For now, he has his new memoir and the limitless capacity to network among Democratic VIPs. But though he can be charming, and his social media posts generate engagement, the audience increasingly wonders: what does Shapiro stand for? That’s a challenge that The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta revealed in a profile last year.

Indeed, Shapiro’s record as governor is seemingly defined by handing out taxpayer dollars. His limited record and trite rhetoric have put him in no man’s land. He’s not the most progressive, the best moderate, or the most effective.

It’s an empty brand.

Shapiro likely has come to realize this. He has just over 710 days until the Democrats’ first primary of 2028. He has to try to find a way to get re-elected, using a message that sells in Scranton but also in Des Moines and South Carolina. He needs a brand – quick.

Pennsylvanians need to be on high alert. Shapiro knows what he wants. But he just hasn’t figured out how to get there.

Guy Ciarrocchi writes for RealClearPennsylvania and Broad+Liberty. A Senior Fellow with the Commonwealth Foundation, follow Guy @PaSuburbsGuy