Is Fetterman Vulnerable in Pennsylvania?

The centrist positions and support for President Trump that Democratic U.S. Sen. John Fetterman has espoused – most recently for Trump’s use of the military to arrest Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges – has led to a loss of support among Pennsylvania Democrats.

Will this lead to a primary challenge when Fetterman faces reelection in 2028?

“I don’t think it’s a possibility he will face a primary challenge – it’s a certainty,” said Democratic consultant T.J. Rooney. “Ironically, he will find himself in the very same position as the person who helped propel his career: once Pennsylvania Lt. Governor (now a California amateur stand-up comedian), Mike Stack. The parallels are stunning. Like Stack, Fetterman has become a bridge too far for virtually all Democrats.

“The only challenge for Democrats will be to not run too many candidates, so as to dilute the electorate and create a pathway for him, where none otherwise exists.”

Muhlenberg College Political Science Professor Christopher Borick agreed that Fetterman is likely to face a primary challenger.

Borick added: “For Fetterman, there is a similar dynamic brewing. Many Democrats, especially progressives, have been less than thrilled with the choices Fetterman has made in Washington, both in votes and rhetoric.” Borick noted that this has created an environment where Fetterman could face a formidable challenge from possible candidates like Conor Lamb, a former U.S. Rep., and current Rep. Chris Deluzio.

“If Fetterman were to receive a strong challenge and survive, it would likely leave him in a weakened position, given the large amount of resources necessary to withstand such a challenge,” Borick said. “Historically, incumbents that have received strong challenges perform worse in general elections than those that have run unopposed.”

Others believe even with competition in the primary, Fetterman would emerge as the likely winner in the general election.

“Fetterman is vulnerable in a Democratic primary because several of his recent high-profile votes don’t match his former progressive rhetoric and record,” said Jeff Jubelirer, a communications strategist with Bellevue Communications. “He campaigned as a left-of-center candidate – and formerly voted accordingly – but increasingly supports President Trump and the Republicans' positions on key issues. Having said that, if Fetterman were to escape the primary with a victory, I’d expect him to be formidable and difficult to beat in the general election since he’d garner support from many Republicans who’ve been pleased with his turnabout.”

Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist with Quantum Communications, believes Fetterman’s “independent streak” will draw a primary challenger from the left.  Gerow mentioned Lamb, who espoused centrist positions when he ran against Fetterman in 2022. But now Lamb has moved to the left to counter Fetterman’s shift to the center, Gerow said.

“Political chameleons are certainly not extinct,” said Gerow. “If or when Fetterman wins that primary, he will be in an even stronger position in the general election where many independent and some Republican voters see him as a voice of moderation and sanity in a swirl of ultra partisanship,” Gerow said.

Rooney added, “He’d do everyone a favor by running as a third-party candidate of some creation.”

That is also the path that Albert Eisenberg, principal of political messaging firm Red Bridge, recently suggested in Broad + Liberty, saying Fetterman should become an Independent and caucus with the Republicans.  While Fetterman could still vote his conscience, “he will find on the Republican side a caucus that is actually interested in listening to him,” Eisenberg said.

Fetterman did not respond to requests for comment.

Linda Stein is a Philadelphia-area freelance writer.