Pennsylvania Elections

Is the Black Vote in Play in Battleground States Like PA?

Last updated 01:44 PM EDT • Read time: 3m

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Donald Trump and the Republican Party have made progress with black voters over the last two elections. In 2016, Trump received only 6% of the black vote in his win against Hilary Clinton. In 2020, Trump doubled his take to 12%, but in a losing effort against Joe Biden. If the GOP nominee can continue making inroads with black voters, it could land him back in the White House in January 2025.

Earlier this month on his CNN program, host Michael Smerconish aired a clip of a reporter visiting Harrisburg. The journalist sat down with black voters at a barbershop to discuss Kamala Harris’s mixed racial identity and whether black voters consider her black. The patrons said that she does not resonate with them. Granted, this was a very limited sample size, but a July 2024 New York Times/Siena poll offers more support for these assumptions.

In the Times poll, only 30% of black voters said that they believe the country is headed in the right direction; 56% said that the United States is on the wrong track. Forty-six percent say that they are almost certain to vote, with 29% claiming that they are very likely to vote. That’s three-quarters of the participants in the poll. If those numbers are representative of the black electorate in Pennsylvania, you have to wonder what percentage of blacks in the Keystone State are inclined to vote for Trump in November.

Among Pennsylvania counties, Philadelphia, Delaware, and Dauphin all have black populations of 20% or higher. I’ve spoken with many black voters on my radio show, and I can tell you that the battle is no longer about blue or red; it’s about green. Countless callers and social media users have told me that when Trump was president, they had more money in their pockets.

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President Trump’s Platinum Plan, for example, proposed a $500 billion investment in black communities, with the goal of creating jobs, supporting black-owned enterprises, and boosting access to education and health care. In 2024, Trump has already visited Atlanta, the Bronx, and Detroit, emphasizing economic growth and financial prosperity.

In 2018, Trump also signed the First Step Act, a monumental criminal-justice reform policy intended to reduce sentences for nonviolent offenders, improve the conditions of housed prisoners, and address the inadequacies of the system. It received bipartisan support.

Much like his one-time Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump advocates for school choice and charter schools, which provide better opportunities for children in underserved communities. By promoting these initiatives, Trump aims to reach black parents seeking quality education for their children. In Pennsylvania, however, we have yet to see a voucher program go into effect. Gov. Josh Shapiro and House Democrats have nixed the idea.

Donald Trump is certainly not going to win the black vote outright, but if he continues to expand his support in the black community, especially in Pennsylvania and other swing states, he might be president again. A low-end goal should be a bump from twelve percent black support in 2020 to 15% in 2024; a more ambitious target would be anywhere from 18% to 24%. If Trump hits 20%, I believe that he will win Pennsylvania – and the election. To an important degree, the black vote is in play in this election. Can Trump capitalize?

Nick Kayal is the Host of “Kayal & Company” weekday mornings 6-10am on Talk Radio 1210 WPHT.

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