The Coming Revolt in the Democratic Party

Numerous Democrats have been outraged by the end of the government shutdown as agreed to by eight Democratic senators. Veteran political observers observed, even as the shutdown started, that past shutdowns have ended with the minority party getting nothing. Minority parties possess less leverage than party stalwarts believe. 

Considerable ire was directed toward Pennsylvania Democratic U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, who had been voting with Republicans throughout the shutdown. When running for office in 2022, Fetterman said “health care is a basic, fundamental human right. I will fight for health care like the health care that saved my life.”  

That quote has circulated on social media as people share how the costs of their health insurance are doubling, tripling, or more. Those increases are also reported by the Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Small business owners, independent contractors, and retirees face wrenching choices, and many indicate that they will have to lose their coverage.

Political journalist Taeggan Goddard observed that the shutdown has ended, and no Republicans voted to extend Obamacare subsidies. “What remains is a campaign message. Democrats now have a simple story to tell: Republicans raised your healthcare premiums. Democrats tried to stop them. It’s hard to imagine a worse political position for the GOP.” 

Thus, it’s certainly possible that the 2025 election results represent the floor, not the ceiling, for Democratic performance in 2026.

However, polling indicates that voters are sour on the Democratic Party. In large part this is a reflection of Democratic voters angry about the Trump administration, and elected Democrats like Fetterman, for not fighting hard enough against the president. It does not mean they won’t vote for Democrats over Republicans, but they are looking for fighters.

For that reason, it’s noteworthy that some of the senators who voted to reopen the government are retiring as of 2026.  hey will not have to face angry voters who are likely to primary those Democrats who are too compromising, too old, or too beholden to special interests.

Likewise, it’s an open secret that Fetterman will face a serious primary in 2028, and he has spent more money than he has raised for in 2025. His recent memoir was so indifferent to the tropes of political writing that it raised speculation that he was not running for office again.

It's likely that Democrats will face its own insurgency, which would explain why U.S. Senators who are retiring took a bullet for the team. It would also explain why members of the House, who face voters every two years, are more attuned to the anger of their base voters, that is those almost certain to vote in primaries.

A similar dynamic has played out among Republican officials in the ten years of the Trump era. Typically, GOP senators and congressmen who criticize some aspect of the Trump administration find their voice once they’ve announced they are heading for the exits.  Or they simply quietly retire.

It’s unclear what a Democratic insurgency would look like. A clue can be found in the 2025 elections. In New York City, Virginia, and New Jersey, voters preferred young candidates who promised to be fighters who focused on affordability. 

Those fighters were not necessarily left wingers. What many national observers missed was that Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA case worker, promised to undo Gov. Youngkin’s order that directed state and local corrections and law enforcement to work closely with ICE. 

She framed her decision in terms of the rule of law, indicating that cooperation would occur if federal officials obtained warrants.  She also observed that recruiting state and local officials to work on immigration was a costly diversion from battling crime.

Spanberger also focused on ways to reduce the price of healthcare, housing, and energy.  She tapped into the anger around data centers driving up the cost of electricity. She also drew sharp contrasts with her Republican opponent on all the major culture-war issues.

This approach resulted in electoral success, but she is hardly a democratic socialist like Zohran Mamdani. Of course, his election raises the possibility that the Democratic insurgency will be in his image. 

A demand for ideological consistency runs the risk of repeating the Tea Party’s pattern of losing general elections because Republicans nominated extreme or flawed candidates. In Maine’s senatorial primary, a UNH poll finds Graham Platner far ahead of retiring governor Susan Mills for the Democratic nomination. The fact that he had a Nazi-style tattoo is offset by his relative youth, his everyman demeanor and his relentless attacks on how oligarchs are driving up the cost of living.

Polling on how Platner would fare against incumbent Susan Collins is spottier. A poll released by a Mills’ endorsing organization, Emily’s List, found that Collins would handily defeat Platner. Partisan polls are notoriously flawed, and clearly Mainer Democrats want to address the affordability crisis that is suffocating working- and middle-class candidates.

Mainers could be repeating the Tea Partiers mistake of nominating a flawed candidate, such as when Delaware Republicans nominated a candidate who had to clarify that she was not a witch. It’s also possible that Platner will be the heir of Bernie Sanders, who has endorsed him, and deliver a decisive victory. Or that Platner wins, and becomes another Fetterman, who Sanders also endorsed.

In short, there is much we do not know. But clearly there are insurgent riptides in the coming blue wave in 2026. There is anger over affordability, over elite impunity (from the Epstein files to billionaire tax avoidance), and a sense that government and major institutions are self-serving. 

How exactly these dynamics play out will be interesting, and important, to watch.

John Hinshaw is Professor of History at Lebanon Valley College.