Allegheny Co. Election Showed That Dems Have More Work to Do

November’s off-year election will continue to dominate opinion sections for weeks to come as pundits try to wrap their arms around how the results will shape the rapidly approaching battle for the White House. While the election appeared encouraging for the Democratic Party, a momentum shift could be forming in a key electorate in Pennsylvania, one of the nation’s most important swing states, and it's one that Democrats should be wary of.  

However, the recent elections in one key battleground state will have major implications for 2024, and the results should raise a red flag for Democrats.  

Pennsylvania, a perennial presidential battleground state, held high-profile races for statewide courts and top positions in local government throughout the Commonwealth. Despite the Democratic momentum sweeping all four statewide court races, a very different dynamic unfolded in Allegheny County, home to the city of Pittsburgh and more than 1.2 million residents. 

The Allegheny County Executive and district attorney, effectively the CEO and chief prosecutor, respectively, for the state’s second-largest county, were the highest profile races in the region. In the county executive campaign, staunchly progressive Sara Innamorato bested Republican Joe Rockey, but only by 3 points and despite a two-to-one advantage in voter party registration. Furthermore, this race was the closest Republicans came to controlling Allegheny County government since 1999, and Innamorato’s predecessor, Democrat Rich Fitzgerald, routinely cruised to victory against Republican foes in the general election over three consecutive terms.  

Rockey’s campaign, which focused on traditionally conservative bread-and-butter issues like public safety and economic populism, clearly resonated with the ostensibly dark blue electorate of Allegheny County. This should raise an eyebrow for Democratic strategists ahead of 2024, particularly with the county district attorney’s race following a similar pattern.

The heated battle for Allegheny County district attorney saw incumbent Steve Zappala, Jr. narrowly defeat public defender Matt Dugan. While Zappala enjoyed the power of incumbency and is a registered Democrat, he won the general election on the Republican ballot, after losing the Democratic nomination to Dugan in the spring primary. Zappala’s campaign leaned heavily into traditionally conservative messaging like crime in major cities as a scare tactic to court voters away from his progressive opponent. Not only did this strategy help the Zappala campaign secure victory, but it aided their nearly clean sweep of the county suburbs filled with the traditionally persuadable voters who swing elections.  

Allegheny County once again outperformed Philadelphia County in voter turnout in these most recent elections as it continues solidifying itself as the political headquarters of Pennsylvania. And the elecion results show that the once reliably blue Allegheny County is filled with voters not only amenable to Republican candidates championing textbook conservative talking points, but that such a candidate can win in Allegheny County.

Pennsylvania will be critical in deciding the next president, and Allegheny County could have more influence on that outcome than any other county in the state. Biden’s frequent visits to the region suggests he is keenly aware of this dynamic, and this election’s results emphasize that the Democratic Party cannot take Allegheny County for granted ahead of 2024.  

Though November 7 represented a major boon for key Democratic priorities and candidates in several states, the results are far less encouraging in the region that matters most as we close in on 2024. 

Zach Kennedy, a former Democratic operative, is a Pittsburgh native and has worked on high-level judicial, state, and federal campaigns in Pennsylvania.