Seeing PA Go From Blue to Red--Through Two Precincts

Donald Trump’s Pennsylvania victory was a story within a story. He not only won the state but also changed the GOP path to winning it. His 2024 county map looks nothing like the 1988 winning map of George H. W. Bush, the last Republican to win here before Trump did in 2016. Trump’s 2024 map barely resembles the near-miss 2004 map for George W. Bush, or even the maps of local GOP winners Gov. Tom Corbett (2010) and U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey (2016).

In 1995, my wife and I moved with our baby daughter from South Philly to the suburbs – Paoli, in Chester County. When we arrived here, the political climate was ruby red. Our township board of supervisors was 7-0, Republican. Our school board was 9-0. Our state representative, state senator, and congressman were Republicans. The GOP controlled our county courthouse from top to bottom, but for a statutorily required “minority” (Democrat) commissioner. It was customary for Democrats not even to field candidates in local races.

Back home, South Philly’s 26th ward was the prototype of “Reagan Democrat” territory. Usually, my ward voted Republican for President, Governor, and U.S. Senator – but Democrat for Congress, state senate, statehouse, and city council.

Since then, both places have moved in different directions.

In 2000 – just four years after Dole defeated Clinton by 35 points – Bush carried our home precinct (Tredyffrin West-3) by less than 7 points. The change we already saw happening to the east, in Lower and Upper Merion Townships and Montgomery County, was coming our way. Bush carried our township and the county, but he lost the state by 4.1 points.

In 2003, I was asked to run for supervisor. Seeing Democratic momentum building, I raised money to make yard signs, sent out postcard mailers, and knocked on doors – though no Democrats had filed to run against me. Many in the local GOP were taken aback at my fundraising and my being so “aggressive.”

In 2004, Bush lost our Tredyffrin precinct by 2%. He held the county but lost the state by 2.5 points. It was the best GOP margin statewide until Trump won in 2016.

I stepped down from my supervisor position in 2005, when President Bush appointed me as a HUD official. A special election was held, and the Democrats won my district seat – and one at-large seat. So, 7-0 had become 5-2. These were the first major cracks in the armor of the GOP stronghold. Ruby red was becoming pastel.

In 2006, the state senate held a special election. In a battle between two county commissioners, the Democrat prevailed. A big crack. That fall, the statehouse seat to our south – for the county seat in West Chester – fell to the Democrats, by 28 votes. Another crack.

By 2019, we were living the mirror image of when we arrived in 1995. Our board of supervisors was now 7-0, Democrat. The school board was 9-0. And our state legislators and member of Congress were Democrats. County offices were all won by Democrats, but for the statutorily required “minority” commissioner, now a lone Republican.

The 21st century Democratic Party counts among its base college graduates and upper-income earners. Chester is the state’s wealthiest county. It’s home to the highest percentage of college graduates and those with advanced degrees. Here you’ll see lots of lawn signs with messages like Hate has no home here and In this house, we believe in science. And lots of Ukrainian flags.

Meantime, among residents back “home” in the 26th ward, crime, failing public schools, and a sense that Washington – and City Hall – didn’t care about them created resentment toward Democrats. GOP victories at the top of the ticket continued – and now expanded to statewide offices. In 2016, Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for attorney general – and now Governor – lost my former precinct by nearly 17 points. This despite Democrats’ huge registration advantage.

In the 26th ward, GOP support grew down-ballot, too. They started carrying candidates for district attorney and even for mayor – when the Philadelphia GOP actually bothered to field candidates.

In 2016, Trump carried my South Philly precinct by 3 points. In 2024, he won by 8.5 points. That was part of the math that got Trump to reach a “historic” 20% of the vote across Philadelphia, on his way to winning Pennsylvania. He used a very different map to do it. In 2024, in Tredyffrin West 3, Harris won with 69% of the vote. My two homes had switched places – revealing the changing party bases. 

The Democrats have become the party of higher incomes, advanced degrees, and virtue-signaling. The GOP are now the party of the forgotten, wondering why “their” Democratic party stopped focusing on fighting crime, etc.

Our daughter just moved back to South Philly, a few blocks from where she was born. Two homes across the street still have Trump signs in the windows. The flags are red, white, and blue.

Guy Ciarrocchi is a Senior Fellow with the Commonwealth Foundation. A former GOP nominee for Congress in Chester County, and the State House in South Philly, he writes for RealClear Pennsylvania and Broad+Liberty. Follow Guy @PaSuburbsGuy