U-Haul's Election Lesson

Pennsylvania is hemorrhaging residents and resources. And it’s been happening for years. 

In 2025, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee topped U-Haul’s ‘in-migration’ states, measured by one-way customer moves. 

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania ranked an abysmal 44th. 

The impact of losing friends and families — and their wealth — to other states should be the canary in coal mine for Pennsylvanians getting ready for another election year in 2026. We need to recognize that bad state-level policies are driving tax dollars and our neighbors to more friendly environments.

In fact, the blue-to-red migration is profound across the country. 

Seven of the top 10 growth states have Republican governors, and nine of those states voted for Trump-Vance in the last presidential election. And four of the top five prime destination states for the last three years are solidly red. 

Conversely, of the 10 worst growth states, nine of them have Democrat governors, and all but three of those states voted for Harris-Walz in the last presidential election.

Since 2015, when U-Haul began tracking the migration of residents, Pennsylvania has been in the worst 10 out-migration states in the nation every year but two. 

According to VoteWithYourFeet, which tracks migration trends, Pennsylvania lost $16,509,051,000 in Aggregated Gross Income (AGI) between 2012-2022. That’s more than $16 billion with a “b”.

Over the same time period, Florida — the biggest beneficiary — gained more than $195 billion in AGI, including $12.3 billion from Pennsylvania. Texas took nearly $1.5 billion in AGI from Pennsylvania on its way to gaining more than $54 billion total. 

This trend of losing people and income to other states is alarming but not surprising. 

It’s no coincidence that three of the top four in-migration states — Texas, Florida, and Tennessee —have no personal income tax at all. Meanwhile all ten of the bottom-ranked states are forced-union states. Economic policies matter.

The only reason Pennsylvania hasn’t become California—the highest out-migration state for the last six years straight — is that Democrats haven’t been able to gain a ‘trifecta’ here as they have in California, where they control both chambers of the legislature as well as the governor’s office. 

As the fifth largest and biggest swing state in the nation, Pennsylvania has elected Democrats in the last three gubernatorial elections, and the state House flipped to a 102-101 Democrat majority in 2022.

But since 1994, Republicans have held the Pennsylvania state Senate and served as a firewall against the bad policies that Democrats have inflicted on the highest out-migration states. 

Now, national Democrats have set their sights on finally breaking the 27-23 Republican majority in the Senate to gain a trifecta. 

By re-electing Josh Shapiro as governor, holding the state House, and flipping just two state Senate seats in 2026, Democrats would gain the trifecta they’ve long sought — locking up Pennsylvania as a solid blue state. And the threat is very real.

Make no mistake: If Democrats succeed, there is zero chance of reversing our outmigration trend. We will become California, Illinois, and New Jersey. We will lose more people, more wealth, and more opportunity. 

Of course, the Left isn’t seeking to capture Pennsylvania so they can impact a U-Haul list. Instead, they realize that if they can control the Keystone State, they can control the direction of the country. States that vote blue at the state level rarely vote red at the national level. 

This is why Democrats have flooded our state elections with millions of dollars from donors across the country over last several election cycles.

With Gov. Shapiro enjoying high approval ratings, we should expect spending from national Democrat special interests to flood our state to help him get the trifecta Democrats haven’t enjoyed in more than four decades.

And if they succeed, we can expect even more U-Haul trucks filled with our friends and families —along with their incomes — to migrate to the states still voting red.

Matthew J. Brouillette is president and CEO of Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs, an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(6) membership organization dedicated to improving the economic environment and educational opportunities in Pennsylvania.